DRAM Prices Expected to Increase by 8-13% in Q3 (2024)

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Thursday, June 27th 2024

Press Releaseby

TheLostSwede
Discuss (14 Comments)

TrendForce reports that a recovery in demand for general servers—coupled with an increased production share of HBM by DRAM suppliers—has led suppliers to maintain their stance on hiking prices. As a result, the ASP of DRAM in the third quarter is expected to continue rising, with an anticipated increase of 8-13%. The price of conventional DRAM is expected to rise by 5-10%, showing a slight contraction compared to the increase in the second quarter.

TrendForce notes that buyers were more conservative about restocking in the second, and inventory levels on both the supplier and buyer sides did not show significant changes. Looking ahead to the third quarter, there is still room for inventory replenishment for smartphones and CSPs, and the peak season for production is soon to commence. Consequently, it is expected that smartphones and servers will drive an increase in memory shipments in the third quarter.

PC DRAM prices expected to increase by 3-8% in Q3
PC DRAM prices are expected to continue their upward trend in the third quarter considering the recovery in demand for general servers and the increased production share of HBM by suppliers. The average price is projected to rise by 3-8% QoQ. This increase is lower than that of server DRAM and shows a contraction compared to the second quarter. The main reasons are the high inventory levels of PC DRAM and the lack of significant improvement in consumer demand.

Server DRAM prices are expected to increase by 8-13% in Q3
Benefiting from seasonal stocking demand for general servers in the third quarter, TrendForce estimates that the contract price of DDR5 server DRAM will increase by 8-13%. Due to high average inventory levels of DDR4 among buyers, purchasing momentum will be focused on DDR5, leading to a higher price increase for DDR5 compared to DDR4. As a result, the average contract price for server DRAM—considering both DDR4 and DDR5—is expected to rise by 8-13% QoQ.

Mobile DRAM prices expected to increase by 3-8% in Q3
Continuous price increases for mobile DRAM in 4Q23 have posed significant challenges to the profitability of brands. Additionally, with current inventories being quite sufficient, brands are not in a hurry to enter price negotiations for the third quarter and have adopted a passive stance in negotiations. However, manufacturers are aiming to fill the profit gaps from previous quarters and anticipate a tightening supply-demand balance next year, thereby maintaining their intention to raise contract prices. Nonetheless, due to the passive negotiation stance of buyers and high inventory levels, the price increase in the third quarter may be limited. TrendForce estimates that the quarterly price increase will be between 3-8%, with LPDDR4(x) experiencing the smallest increase and possibly even further contraction.

Graphics DRAM prices expected to increase by 3-8% in Q3
In the third quarter, overall demand for graphics DRAM remains relatively flat, with price trends mainly influenced by the interconnected effects of other DRAM products. With manufacturers firmly entering an upward pricing cycle and the price increase momentum not yet abating, buyers are adopting a continuous stocking strategy, making them more amenable to price hikes proposed by sellers. On the supply side, as new GPUs enter the verification stage, manufacturers are gradually increasing the production of GDDR7, which currently carries a 20-30% premium over GDDR6. The shipment of GDDR7 samples in 3Q24 is expected to slightly push up the average selling price. As such, graphics DRAM prices are anticipated to increase by 3-8% QoQ.

DDR3 & DDR4 prices expected to increase by 3-8% in Q3
The overall consumer DRAM market continues to exhibit oversupply, but the three major suppliers are clearly intent on raising prices due to the capacity squeeze from HBM production. Additionally, Taiwanese manufacturers have yet to return to profitability, creating further upward pressure on prices. As a result, prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend.

Looking further ahead to the fourth quarter, the need for inventory replenishment by smartphone manufacturers and CSPs—along with an increased production share of HBM by suppliers—will support the continuation of rising prices. As the end of the year approaches, both buyers and sellers will formulate procurement strategies based on the current supply and demand outlook for 2025. Therefore, TrendForce does not rule out the possibility that buyers will continue to raise inventory levels in anticipation of potential shortages caused by the increased share of HBM production in 2025.

Related News

  • Tags:
  • consumer
  • contract
  • DDR
  • DDR3
  • DDR4
  • DDR5
  • DDR6
  • DRAM
  • GDDR6
  • GDDR7
  • GPU
  • Graphics
  • HBM
  • LPDDR4
  • LPDDR4X
  • Mobile
  • PC
  • price hike
  • production
  • RAM
  • Server
  • supply and demand
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Add your own comment
#2
P4-630

I need a new memory kit for my Arrow Lake build, but ain't buying before I have seen reviews of Arrow Lake...

I already have 400 EUROS accounted for a 2x24GB 8000+ kit...

#3
bonehead123

I'm soooo glad I bought a buttload of high-end DDR4 late last year, when memory prices were really low, which has saved me & my clients a ton of $$ on their recent & upcoming builds :)

#4
Evrsr

This is nonsense. Spot prices for DRAM have been going down for the last few months, every day.

Only have these last few days seen upward movement and it has been very small.

#5
P4-630
EvrsrThis is nonsense. Spot prices for DRAM have been going down for the last few months, every day.

Only have these last few days seen upward movement and it has been very small.

Only we can do is wait and see, it isn't Q3 yet.

#6
TheLostSwede

News Editor

EvrsrThis is nonsense. Spot prices for DRAM have been going down for the last few months, every day.

Only have these last few days seen upward movement and it has been very small.

Spot pricing is not the same though. TrendForce tend to follow contract pricing when it comes to these types of things and that requires some insight into the industry to have an idea what's going on.

#8
P4-630
dgianstefani400 Euros?

The current 2x24 8000/+ kits available for buying in my country at the moment:

DRAM Prices Expected to Increase by 8-13% in Q3 (3)

#9
dgianstefani

TPU Proofreader

P4-630The current 2x24 8000/+ kits available for buying in my country at the moment:

DRAM Prices Expected to Increase by 8-13% in Q3 (4)

If it's in Euros just order from anywhere in Europe, wherever is cheapest.

That price I linked is for Germany.

Still, looks more like 300 Euros.

#10
P4-630
dgianstefaniIf it's in Euros just order from anywhere in Europe.

That price I linked is for Germany.

Still, looks more like 300 Euros.

Maybe there's faster stuff when Arrow Lake is out...Albeit then at a possible 8% higher price, but I won't be buying yet..

#11
dgianstefani

TPU Proofreader

P4-630Maybe there's faster stuff when Arrow Lake is out...Albeit then at a possible 8% higher price, but I won't be buying yet..

I doubt it unless you're going CAMM2 tbh.

The redriver kits have terrible timings, remains to be seen if that's inherent to the tech or just bad kit profiles.

#12
P4-630
dgianstefaniI doubt it unless you're going CAMM2 tbh.

The redriver kits have terrible timings, remains to be seen if that's inherent to the tech or just bad kit profiles.

From Toms:

At Computex, TeamGroup said its 16GB, 32GB, and 64GB memory will go up to 9600 MT/s.
Samsung's page on LPCAMM2 lists an "extraordinary data transfer rate of 8,533Mbps," the same number memory company Geil showed at Computex.

www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/motherboards/what-is-camm2

Not much faster yet, but probably lower latency.

I read that Arrow Lake will work with this type of memory.
I have no idea yet how much the premium with supporting board and the memory itself will be...

If we get more info about this before Q3 and possible availability, well we'll see.

#13
Evrsr
TheLostSwedeSpot pricing is not the same though. TrendForce tend to follow contract pricing when it comes to these types of things and that requires some insight into the industry to have an idea what's going on.

I know, but TrendForce have been doing this for a while and they haven't really materialized on the market place, neither for DRAM or NAND. Sure, we've had some bumps after very depressed pricing but we're on a downward trend right now. Demand during spring and summer is always quite low, so this is normal.

If you check market prices for DDR4 modules that are still being churned out, price has been at the same level for almost a year (2x16GB at 40eur).

Even on NAND, things are at in a downward trend even though it was up over a year. TF predicted increases over the whole year.

So, are they only selling through contracts? It is also a "price projection", not really certain, so I would trust what is seen everyday on the spot market.

#14
TheLostSwede

News Editor

EvrsrI know, but TrendForce have been doing this for a while and they haven't really materialized on the market place, neither for DRAM or NAND. Sure, we've had some bumps after very depressed pricing but we're on a downward trend right now. Demand during spring and summer is always quite low, so this is normal.

If you check market prices for DDR4 modules that are still being churned out, price has been at the same level for almost a year (2x16GB at 40eur).

Even on NAND, things are at in a downward trend even though it was up over a year. TF predicted increases over the whole year.

So, are they only selling through contracts? It is also a "price projection", not really certain, so I would trust what is seen everyday on the spot market.

Obviously they're far from correct every time and this should largely be seen as an indicator of where they industry is pushing the market, rather than actual MSRP.
Most of their data is clearly not from retail either, but rather contract pricing. The retail market fluctuates a lot quicker, which is why their retail pricing is less accurate.
Also, I would say most of their data would be from Taiwanese companies, which means it might not play out the same globally.
However, it's an indicator of where things could be heading.

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DRAM Prices Expected to Increase by 8-13% in Q3 (2024)
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