Giants-Guardians Series Preview (2024)

The Cleveland Guardians have been the “in your wildest dreams” version of the San Francisco Giants in the aftermath of Gabe Kapler’s firing last September. They have Stephen Vogt as their manager. Kai Correa is still on the coaching staff. And the team has taken a bunch of young pitching and questionable hitting and coached it up into a juggernaut.

That’s not entirely the case, of course. While Cleveland is a juggernaut (lead their division by 6 games, 3rd-best record in MLB), their situation is a little bit closer to that 2021 season, where it all came together for Gabe Kapler and his staff. Rookie manager Stephen Vogt — a rare player with a 100% approval rating in Giants fandom and spotlighted here because I think a lot of us preferred the team go with him over the season ticketholder’s choice of Bob Melvin — looks like he’s already on a Hall of Fame path, but he’s not inheriting a roster of projects or questionable players.

Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan were already known quantities, and last year’s staff led by Terry Francona had already broken in starters Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen, but as we saw when Kapler & co. took over, there’s something to be said about a young, new, and energetic staff taking the reins. They have the potential to reenergize a roster and franchise. They’ve already had to navigate the loss of staff ace Shane Bieber for the season, and they inherited a lineup that had been 24th in runs scored from 2021-2023. This season, they’ve scored the fifth-most runs in MLB and have the eighth-best team ERA in MLB.

So, it’s gone very well, and as much as the Atlanta series was a glimpse into another team in a similar spot as the Giants — their offseason plan falling apart — here’s a look at a team whose plan coalesced perfectly and can’t help but look like a situation the Giants could have found themselves in had they gone with Vogt over Melvin. (I say this knowing that it is very probable that Vogt was never likely on a shortlist because of his lack of experience.)

And here’s where we take the turn to discuss these Giants. They’re playing great. They took it to Atlanta. Even in their recent losses — and I’m including the extra innings blowout against the Dodgers — they haven’t really looked overmatched. They’re fun. Some might even say exciting. These are not your Gabe Kapler Giants, and I’m compelled to evoke him multiple times here because we’re in the Melvin-Vogt-Correa (who is on Vogt’s staff) triangle for this series and, well, his name is in the air.

The Giants’ last 6 game road trip was an unmitigated disaster (1-5). This one is off to a much better start and even if Cleveland sweeps (they’re 28-10 at home with a +50 run differential), this one will have gone better. They’re 7-3 overall in their last 10 games (the exact number of games played since that 1-5 road trip) and have just a +7 run differential (49 scored/42 allowed — thanks, extra innings game against the Dodgers); but, let’s just focus on that 49 runs scored. That’s 4.9 runs per game over the last 10 and even if we like the direction of the pitching (Hayden Birdsong looking good, and solid news about starters returning from injury very soon), scoring more runs in the short term was always the best solution.

The Guardians figured it out early and turned into a perpetual motion machine — though, it must be noted, they’re 16-12 since the start of June with a team ERA of 4.13 — and now it looks like the Giants have figured out what works best for them as a bridge until they get back to full strength. Hopefully, this sets us up for an exciting series.

Series details

Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
When: Friday (4:10pm PT), Saturday (1:10pm PT), Sunday (10:40am PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Friday)

Projected starters
Friday: Erik Miller (opener) vs. Tanner Bibee
Saturday: Kyle Harrison vs. Logan Allen
Sunday: Hayden Birdsong vs. Carlos Carrasco

Where they stand

Guardians, 54-31 (1st in ALC), 424 RS / 327 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5
Giants, 43-45 (4th in NLW, -3.0 WC), 390 RS / 417 RA | Last 10 games: 7-3

Guards to watch

Steven Kwan: The Giants faced him a couple of seasons ago when he first exploded onto the scene and were the team that started his downward spiral — though, who am I kidding. He was still 20% better than the league average in 2022. Last year, he fell off and was a below league average hitter, though he featured a decent .340 OBP — it just happened to couple with a sub-.400 slug. This season, through his first 59 games and 265 plate appearances, he’s slashing .367/.424/.538. He is the fourth-best hitter in the sport (177 wRC+) behind only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. Elite company. He’s 3-for-19 in his career against the Giants and, well, let’s watch and see if his equals or surpasses that hit total in a single game, since it certainly seems like he’s having that kind of season.

Tanner Bibee: A glance at his game logs on the season suggests that he’s been great against good teams and pitched down to the level of bad teams. For instance, he’s allowed 9 runs in 15 innings against the Angels, 5 in 9.2 IP (2 starts) against the A’s, but 2 in 12.1 IP against the Twins and 3 total in a combined 24 IP against Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, and Seattle. So, how he does against the Giants will tell us what the Baseball Gods think of the Giants: are they good or bad?

Cleveland’s bullpen: I could’ve gone in a lot of directions here. Jose Ramirez is an elite player. David Fry is an elite utility player. Josh Naylor’s power is something Giants pitching needs to avoid, but let’s focus on Cleveland’s dominant bullpen. It has the best ERA in the sport (2.61) and trails only Philadelphia’s in total value (4.5 fWAR to 4.9) — and that’s thanks to a FIP difference of .08 (Philadelphia: 3.08 FIP, Cleveland: 3.16). They don’t walk many and they don’t give up a lot of home runs. There’s no real soft spot in the group, either. Their closer, Emmanuel Clase, is not a strikeout machine (39 in 40 IP), but he has a 0.62 WHIP. Hunter Gaddis, their setup guy, is the same. Cade Smith and Scott Barlow are the power strikeout looks and they even have a similar split with their lefties, getting soft contact from Tim Herrin but strikeouts from Sam Hentges. They even have their own Tyler Rogers in Nick Sandlin. And as of this afternoon, they’ve even added former Giant Spencer Howard via trade. If the Giants are trailing by 3 runs after the 5th, it’s not good news.

Giants to watch

Heliot Ramos & LaMonte Wade Jr.: As somebody on Twitter pointed out last night, it’s weird to see a Giants lineup featuring two hitters with .900 OPSes, but that’s the situation with these two and they either need to be the force that gives the Giants some offense or soak up all the attention that creates opportunities for other hitters. Combined, they’re averaging 8.3 pitches per plate appearance, and so having good at bats, even if the outcomes aren’t positive, is essential.

The Giants bullpen: The Guardians are the second-best offensive team in MLB this season in “High Leverage” situations (143 wRC+, behind only the Yankees - 146). The Giants have the 12th-worst team ERA in high leverage situations (9.90).

Kyle Harrison: It’s gotta be a tough situation to be a young pitcher coming back from an IL stint on the road and against a team that has been dominant at home. The Giants and Guardians are tied for 5th in MLB with 119 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. So.

Prediction time